ANALISIS PENGARUH UTANG PUBLIK, INVESTASI DAN KONSUMSI RUMAH TANGGA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

Evan Surya Novendra; Rusiadi Rusiadi

doi:10.46576/wdw.v19i2.6056

ANALISIS PENGARUH UTANG PUBLIK, INVESTASI DAN KONSUMSI RUMAH TANGGA TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DI INDONESIA

Evan Surya Novendra, Rusiadi Rusiadi

Abstract

Penelitian ini mencoba memahami bagaimana utang publik, investasi, dan konsumsi rumah tangga memengaruhi pertumbuhan ekonomi di Indonesia. Dengan menggunakan pendekatan kuantitatif dan model regresi linear berganda, studi ini menganalisis data dari tahun 2013 hingga 2023 untuk melihat sejauh mana faktor-faktor tersebut berperan dalam dinamika ekonomi nasional. Hasilnya cukup menarik. Investasi dan belanja pemerintah terbukti memberikan dampak positif yang signifikan terhadap pertumbuhan ekonomi, masing-masing dengan koefisien 0,658 dan 0,424. Namun, yang mengejutkan, utang publik justru berdampak negatif dengan koefisien -0,270, sementara konsumsi rumah tangga ternyata tidak memberikan pengaruh yang berarti. Lebih lanjut, model penelitian ini menunjukkan tingkat akurasi yang sangat tinggi dengan nilai R Square mencapai 99,9%. Artinya, variabel-variabel yang diteliti hampir sepenuhnya mampu menjelaskan perubahan dalam pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia.

Keywords

Utang Publik, Investasi, Konsumsi Rumah Tangga, Belanja, Pemerintah, Pertumbuhan Ekonomi.

Full Text:

PDF (Bahasa Indonesia)

References

Bakri, M., Adiwicaksana, Y., & Utami, A. (2022). PUBLIC DEBT AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA. E-Jurnal Ekonomi dan Bisnis Universitas Udayana.

Ferdiansah, R. (2022). The Impact of Household Consumption and Investment on Economic Growth. American Journal of Economic and Management Business (AJEMB).

Sari, V. (2022). Debt and Economic Growth: The Case of Indonesia. Journal of Developing Economies.

Rafiy, M., Adam, P., Bachmid, G., & Saenong, Z. (2018). An Analysis of the Effect of Consumption Spending and Investment on Indonesia’s Economic Growth. iranian economic review, 22, 753-766.

Syafri, M., Robiani, B., & Soebyakto, B. (2018). The Effect of Household Consumption and The Government Expenditure on Economic Growth in Indonesian.

Ramli, A., & Andriani, A. (2013). The Effects of Consumption, Private Investment, and Government Expenditures on Economic Growth in South Sulawesi, Indonesia. Journal of economics and sustainable development, 4, 145-153.

Munfaati, A., Noviarita, H., & Anggraini, E. (2022). Effects of Zakat and Government Debt on the Indonesian Economy. Al-Kharaj : Jurnal Ekonomi, Keuangan & Bisnis Syariah.

Susanti, R., Silvia, E., & Amelia, D. (2021). Analisis Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Investasi dan Net Ekspor Indonesia Menggunakan Model Simultan. Jurnal Ekobistek.

Fredlina, C., Ginting, E., & Hutasoit, A. (2021). Analysis of the Effect of Macroeconomic Variables and External Debt on Indonesia's Economic Growth for the First Quarter 2010- First Quarter 2020. **, 5, 536-554.

Iba, Z., , M., Inuzula, L., & , S. (2021). Impact of Government Debt and Foreign Investment on the Indonesian Economy: An ARDL Model Analysis. Journal of Accounting, Business and Finance Research.

Masruroh, A., & Fitrianto, A. (2023). MENAVIGASI TANTANGAN FISKAL: EFEKTIVITAS SUKUK SEBAGAI INSTRUMEN ALTERNATIF PEMBIAYAAN DEFISIT DI INDONESIA. I-ECONOMICS: A Research Journal on Islamic Economics.

Listiyani, F., Sriyana, J., & Ratnawati, N. (2023). The Effect of External Public Debt and State Sukuk (SBSN) On Indonesia's Economic Growth: An Autoregressive Distributed Lag Approach. Dinasti International Journal of Economics, Finance & Accounting.

Nailufar, F., Ichsan, I., Sari, C., & Juliansyah, H. (2023). THE EFFECT OF GOVERNMENT SPENDING, DOMESTIC INVESTMENT AND FOREIGN DEBT ON GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT IN INDONESIA. Journal of Malikussaleh Public Economics.

Sulisnaningrum, E. (2021). The Impact of Investment, Consumption, Government Spending and Net Exports on Economic Growth in Indonesia. ASIAN Economic and Business Development.

Bonokeling, D., Sholeh, M., & Mispandi, M. (2023). The Effect of Investment, National Government Expenditure, Exports, and Imports on Indonesia’s Economic Growth. Jurnal Ekonomi dan Pembangunan

Awagi, D., Sujianto, A., Fitriana, L., Roisatin, E., & Wardani, C. (2023). Pengaruh Ekspor, Impor, Inflasi, Dan Suku Bunga Terhadap Neraca Pembayaran di Indonesia. Inisiatif: Jurnal Ekonomi, Akuntansi dan Manajemen.

Saragih, E., , A., Jhon, E., & Saragih, C. (2024). Analysis of the Effect of Government Spending and Human Development Index on Economic Growth in Indonesia 2021 – 2022. Formosa Journal of Multidisciplinary Research.

Jamil, P., Rosyadi, M., & Widowati, A. (2020). Analysis of Correlation Between Indonesian Composite Index and Economic Growth in Indonesia. European Journal of Business and Management.

Kamarni, N., Andrianus, F., & Dhoifullah, A. (2023). ASSESSING THE INFLUENCE OF THE ISLAMIC FINANCIAL SYSTEM ON INDONESIA'S ECONOMIC GROWTH IN THE LONG AND SHORT RUN FROM 2011 TO 2022. Jurnal Al-Iqtishad.

Karras, D. (1997). Statistical methodology: II. Reliability and validity assessment in study design, Part B.. Academic emergency medicine : official journal of the Society for Academic Emergency Medicine, 4 2, 144-7.

Galkina, E. (2022). Classification of the hypothesis testing reliability criteria in socio-economic research. Proceedings of the IX International Scientific and Practical Conference “Current Problems of Social and Labour Relations" (ISPC-CPSLR 2021).

Ursachi, G., Horodnic, I., & Zait, A. (2015). How Reliable are Measurement Scales? External Factors with Indirect Influence on Reliability Estimators. Procedia. Economics and finance, 20, 679-686.

Ghourchian, S., & Yilmazkuday, H. (2020). Government Consumption, Government Debt and Economic Growth. PSN: Debt (Topic).

Butkus, M., Cibulskiene, D., Garšvienė, L., & Šeputienė, J. (2021). Empirical Evidence on Factors Conditioning the Turning Point of the Public Debt–Growth Relationship. Economies.

Heimberger, P. (2022). Do higher public debt levels reduce economic growth?. Journal of Economic Surveys.

Bato, M., & Viray, E. (2024). Exploring the Effects of High National Debt on Household Consumption and Foreign Direct Investments. Bedan Research Journal.

Fir, N. (2022). Does Debt Have Threshold Effects on Medium-Term Growth? Evidence from European Union Countries. Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, 68, 1 - 18.

DOI: https://doi.org/10.46576/wdw.v19i2.6056